Kerry can solve Iranian conundrum

We do not know how Bush's move into Iraq will shake out. But the war for influence is raging. We can only form our opinions from the highest perch, based on information we cull from the media. It is not a reliable method. However, it's possible to begin to trinagulate the truth.

I think the unfortunate likelyhood the US will take some sort of military action against Iran is increasing with every day. We are beginning to see some justification put forth by the administration for a pre-emptive strike, either covert or overt. Yesterday, Condoleeza Rice refused to rule it out. Her reasons were, of course, that Iran is maintaining an active nuclear weapons program.

This comes on the heels of the Iraqi Prime Minister's release of a warrant for the arrest of Achmed Chalabi, former neo-con wonder boy and maybe the reason why we are in Iraq at all. The WMD story, while compelling, is probably not the most pressing issue for the new Iraqi administraion and the US nor the real reason action will be taken. There is increasing evidence that Iran is closely tied to Moqtada al-Sadr and is actively supporting his uprising.

Over the past 10 days, about 1200 Iranians have been arrested in Karbala, a city of pilgrimage for Iranian Shia Muslims. Tehran is widely assumed by Baghdad to be supporting the renewed insurgency in Najaf by Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Amidst it all, Al-Sadr has vowed to fight on. Reuters reports that 360 of his fighters are dead:

A firebrand Shi'ite cleric on Monday defied demands from Iraq's interim government that his militia pull out of Najaf, after days of fierce clashes with U.S. Marines who say they have killed 360 of his fighters.

By invading Iraq Bush and the Neocons, have created an environment in which it is possible for Iran to forge lasting ties with Iraq's enormous Shi'ite population. Al Qaeda has found fertile ground amidst the chaos. There clearly is no one governmental entity with credible control. This will result in more war, more terrorism, more deaths as all concerned rush to fill the power vacuum.

President Bush and his team have been surprised at every turn. They think they are fighting the good fight-- I'd like to think so too. But I think they are romantics. The weighed anchor on this journey with a map made of dreams. Now, the cause of creating a just peace in Iraq needs international help. Bush's diplomatic track record is not good. Kerry will also find it difficult to convince allies to join, to help, to give. But at least Kerry has a shot at getting them to sit down at the table. Bush's ineptitude is not an attractive proposition to anyone-- except Iran and Al Qaeda. For them, clever Iran, clever Al Qaeda, it represents the brass ring.