Thursday, August 12, 2004

Sadyr state of affairs

The US has gone into Najaf to remove Al Sadr. There wasn't much choice at this point. Another withdrawl would have crippled the new Iraqi administration. But there won't be any victors here. Turning Al Sadr into a martyr is a bad idea. Leaving him to fortify his positions and build his base isn't any better. It's typical of this administration to prefer the most straightforward, incautious route. It may work, but it's very dangerous.

The Australian notes

The offensive was preceded by heavy US bombing of another Shi'ite holy city, Kut, north of Najaf.

The Iraqi Health Ministry said 75 people were killed and 148 wounded in that attack.

The ministry said 44 died and 164 were wounded in Baghdad, mostly in the Shi'ite stronghold of Sadr City. The early fighting in Najaf left 25 dead and 153 wounded; 14 were killed and 77 wounded in Amara; and seven were killed and 52 wounded in Diwaniya.

And that's just the last 24 hours. Add to the mix the fact that Iraq's top Sunni Muslim has issued a fatwa forbidding Muslims from working with the cooalition. Arab states, including Lebanon, Egypt and Iran are calling for an end to the fighting.From the Associated Press:

In Cairo, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa called it a "a painful and sad shedding of Iraqi blood" and warned that the violation of sacred Muslim places could have "serious repercussions."

Sadr is bad news but he has support. He is able to mobilize the poor and disaffected. His brand of nationalism, religious fundamentalism and violent resistance is a strong call. With this action, the US risks prying open the lid on the box containing all out civil war in Iraq.

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